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Three layers of opinion [Concept]

From the Meridians Wiki · Public · Maintained · joint

An expert's opinion is held in three complementary layers, kept distinct. All three are predictive reads over mutually-exclusive outcomes, moved by evidence — what separates them is the WRITE PATH, not the question type (outcome-first refactor, 2026-08-03): a Thread is canon, a Stream stages a change to canon, a Position never writes to canon.

flowchart LR
    Q(["An open question"])

    Q --> T["**Threads** — Fate<br/>settled opinion · long horizon"]
    Q --> S["**Streams** — World<br/>evidence-driven priors · present day"]
    Q --> P["**Positions** — foresight<br/>the live read of where things head"]

    S -->|"resolve via Merge<br/>(a Merge folds it into canon)"| T
    S -->|"evidence"| P
    P -.->|"re-prices on evidence;<br/>its Position is graded"| P
LayerHorizonNatureResolves?
Threadslongsettled belief about broad-world outcomes— (canon)
Streamspresenta seat-owned predictive read accruing priors (an action is just an outcome the seat drives)yes — a Merge folds it into a Thread
Positionslivea priced Reading (cohort of futures) over a Reasoning Graph, watched by a monitornever — like a GPS it keeps a live read of the road
  • Outcomes are the universal frame. A Stream's slots are the ways its question could land; when the question is one the seat itself decides, its outcomes simply are its candidate moves — no kind field, no second code path, the question's phrasing carries the framing. Retired: "Streams are action-first."
  • A Position's forward read is never marked true or false; it carries the thesis and the commitment in one artifact, and what reality grades is the committed consequence the read opens (reversed 2026-08-03; Projection merged into Position 2026-08-05 — see PIVOT). It reacts to both the user's inputs (sources, corrections) and the world's inputs (fresh evidence), keeps the track of how the read moved, and stays live as long as the question is live.
  • The three layers together are the expert's opinion. The Program (program-loop) keeps all three current.
  • Vocabulary is owned by LANGUAGE.md; the shipped/directional split by POSITIONING.md.