Three layers of opinion [Concept]

# Three layers of opinion `[Concept]`

An expert's opinion is held in three complementary layers, kept distinct. All three are **predictive
reads over mutually-exclusive outcomes, moved by evidence** — what separates them is the **WRITE PATH**,
not the question type (outcome-first refactor, 2026-08-03): a Thread *is* canon, a Stream *stages a
change to* canon, a Position *never writes to* canon.

```mermaid
flowchart LR
    Q(["An open question"])

    Q --> T["**Threads** — Fate<br/>settled opinion · long horizon"]
    Q --> S["**Streams** — World<br/>evidence-driven priors · present day"]
    Q --> P["**Positions** — foresight<br/>the live read of where things head"]

    S -->|"resolve via Merge<br/>(a Merge folds it into canon)"| T
    S -->|"evidence"| P
    P -.->|"re-prices on evidence;<br/>its Position is graded"| P
```

| Layer | Horizon | Nature | Resolves? |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Threads** | long | settled belief about broad-world outcomes | — (canon) |
| **Streams** | present | a seat-owned predictive read accruing priors (an action is just an outcome the seat drives) | yes — a **Merge** folds it into a Thread |
| **Positions** | live | a priced **Reading** (cohort of futures) over a **Reasoning Graph**, watched by a monitor | **never** — like a GPS it keeps a live read of the road |

- **Outcomes are the universal frame.** A Stream's slots are the ways its question could land; when the
  question is one the seat itself decides, its outcomes simply *are* its candidate moves — no `kind`
  field, no second code path, the question's phrasing carries the framing. *Retired: "Streams are
  action-first."*
- A Position's forward **read** is **never marked true or false**; it carries the **thesis and the commitment in one artifact**, and what reality grades is the **committed consequence** the read opens (reversed 2026-08-03; Projection merged into Position 2026-08-05 — see [PIVOT](../../knowledge/foundations/PIVOT.md)). It reacts to both the user's inputs (sources, corrections) *and* the world's inputs (fresh evidence), keeps the track of how the read moved, and stays live as long as the question is live.
- The three layers together *are* the expert's opinion. The **Program** ([program-loop](program-loop.md)) keeps all three current.
- Vocabulary is owned by [LANGUAGE.md](../../knowledge/vocabulary/index.md); the shipped/directional split by [POSITIONING.md](../../knowledge/product/positioning/index.md).

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